How useful are genomic data for predicting maladaptation to future climate?

Methods using genomic information to forecast potential population maladaptation to climate change or new environments are becoming increasingly common, yet the lack of model validation poses serious hurdles toward their incorporation into management and policy. Here, we compare the validation of maladaptation estimates derived from two methods-Gradient Forests (GFoffset) and the risk of non-adaptedness (RONA)-using exome capture pool-seq data from 35 to 39 populations across three conifer taxa: two Douglas-fir varieties and jack pine. We evaluate sensitivity of these algorithms to the source of input loci (markers selected from genotype-environment associations [GEA] or those selected at random). We validate these methods against 2- and 52-year growth and mortality measured in independent transplant experiments. Overall, we find that both methods often better predict transplant performance than climatic or geographic distances. We also find that GFoffset and RONA models are surprisingly not improved using GEA candidates. Even with promising validation results, variation in model projections to future climates makes it difficult to identify the most maladapted populations using either method. Our work advances understanding of the sensitivity and applicability of these approaches, and we discuss recommendations for their future use.

The WZA: A window-based method for characterizing genotype-environment associations.

Genotype-environment association (GEA) studies have the potential to identify the genetic basis of local adaptation in natural populations. Specifically, GEA approaches look for a correlation between allele frequencies and putatively selective features of the environment. Genetic markers with extreme evidence of correlation with the environment are presumed to be tagging the location of alleles that contribute to local adaptation. In this study, we propose a new method for GEA studies called the Weighted-Z Analysis (WZA) that combines information from closely linked sites into analysis windows in a way that was inspired by methods for calculating FST . Performing GEA methods in analysis windows has the advantage that it takes advantage of the increased linkage disequilibrium expected surrounding sites subject to local adaptation. We analyse simulations modelling local adaptation to heterogeneous environments to compare the WZA with existing methods. In the majority of cases we tested, the WZA either outperformed single-SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism)-based approaches or performed similarly. In particular, the WZA outperformed individual SNP approaches when a small number of individuals or demes were sampled. Particularly troubling, we found that some GEA methods exhibit very high false positive rates. We applied the WZA to previously published data from lodgepole pine and identified candidate loci that were identified in the original study alongside numerous loci that were not found in the original study.

The evolution of genetic covariance and modularity as a result of multigenerational environmental fluctuation.

The genetic covariance between traits can affect the evolution of a population through selection, drift, and migration. Conversely, research has demonstrated the reciprocal effect of evolutionary processes on changing genetic covariances, in part through mutational covariance, correlational selection, and plasticity. In this article, we propose that correlated changes in selective optima over generations can cause the evolution of genetic covariance and the G-matrix in such a way that the population can, in the future, evolve faster. We use individual-based simulations of populations exposed to three types of changing environments that differ in the correlation of the change between selective pressures. Our simulation experiments demonstrate that selection pressures for different traits changing in a correlated pattern over generations can lead to stronger trait correlations compared to the case with independently changing selective optima. Our findings show that correlated selective pressures result in significantly higher genetic trait covariance and that pleiotropy accounts for the majority of the difference in covariance between treatments. We also observe that the mutational variance evolves according to the environment that the populations were exposed to. Moreover, we show that clustered patterns of changes in selection can allow the evolution of genetic modularity. We show that the pattern of change in the selective environment affects the pace at which fitness evolves, with populations experiencing correlated change in optima having on average higher mean fitness than those experiencing uncorrelated environment change.

Using genome scans to identify genes used repeatedly for adaptation.

Adaptation occurring in similar genes or genomic regions in distinct lineages provides evolutionary biologists with a glimpse at the fundamental opportunities for and constraints to diversification. With the widespread availability of high-throughput sequencing technologies and the development of population genetic methods to identify the genetic basis of adaptation, studies have begun to compare the evidence for adaptation at the molecular level among distinct lineages. However, methods to study repeated adaptation are often oriented toward genome-wide testing to identify a set of genes with signatures of repeated use, rather than evaluating the significance at the level of an individual gene. In this study, we propose PicMin, a novel statistical method derived from the theory of order statistics that can test for repeated molecular evolution to estimate significance at the level of an individual gene, using the results of genome scans. This method is generalizable to any number of lineages and, indeed, statistical power to detect repeated adaptation increases with the number of lineages that have signals of repeated adaptation of a given gene in multiple lineages. An implementation of the method written for R can be downloaded from https://github.com/TBooker/PicMin.

The immediate costs and long-term benefits of assisted gene flow in large populations.

With the genetic health of many plant and animal populations deteriorating due to climate change outpacing adaptation, interventions, such as assisted gene flow (AGF), may provide genetic variation necessary for populations to adapt to climate change. We ran genetic simulations to mimic different AGF scenarios in large populations and measured their outcomes on population-level fitness to determine circumstances in which it is worthwhile to perform AGF. In the absence of inbreeding depression, AGF was beneficial within a few generations only when introduced genotypes had much higher fitness than local individuals and traits affecting fitness were controlled by a few genes of large effect. AGF was harmful over short periods (e.g., first ∼10-20 generations) if there was strong outbreeding depression or introduced deleterious genetic variation. When the adaptive trait was controlled by many loci of small effect, the benefits of AGF took over 10 generations to realize-potentially too long for most climate-related management scenarios. The genomic integrity of the recipient population typically remained intact following AGF; the amount of genetic material from the donor population usually constituted no more of the recipient population's genome than the fraction of the population introduced. Significant genomic turnover (e.g., >50% replacement) only occurred when the selective advantage of the adaptive trait and translocation fraction were extremely high. Our results will be useful when adaptive management is used to maintain the genetic health and productivity of large populations under climate change.

Con el deterioro de la salud genética de muchas poblaciones de plantas y animales debido a la ventaja que le lleva el cambio climático a la adaptación, algunas intervenciones, como el flujo génico asistido (FGA), pueden proporcionar la variación genética necesaria para que las poblaciones se adapten al cambio climático. Simulamos diferentes escenarios de FGA aplicado en poblaciones grandes y medimos los resultados en la aptitud a nivel poblacional para determinar las circunstancias en las que merece la pena realizar FGA. Cuando no hubo depresión endogámica, el FGA produjo un beneficio en pocas generaciones sólo cuando se introdujeron genotipos que tenían una aptitud mucho mayor que los individuos locales y cuando unos cuantos genes de gran efecto controlaron los rasgos que afectaban a la aptitud. El flujo génico asistido fue dañino en periodos cortos (p.ej.: las primeras 10-20 generaciones) si existía una fuerte depresión exogámica o una variación genética deletérea introducida. Cuando muchos loci de pequeño efecto controlaron el rasgo adaptativo, los beneficios del FGA tardaron más de 10 generaciones en aparecer - un tiempo potencialmente muy largo para la mayoría de la gestión relacionada con el clima. La integridad genómica de la población receptora casi siempre permaneció intacta después del FGA; es decir, la cantidad de material genético de la población donante generalmente no constituyó más que la fracción de población introducida en el genoma de la población receptora. La rotación genómica significativa (p.ej.: reemplazos >50%) sólo ocurrió cuando la ventaja selectiva del rasgo adaptativo y la fracción de reubicación fueron extremadamente elevadas. Nuestros resultados serán útiles cuando se use la gestión adaptativa para mantener la salud genética y la productividad de las poblaciones grandes bajo el cambio climático.

Growth genes are implicated in the evolutionary divergence of sympatric piscivorous and insectivorous rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss).

BACKGROUND: Identifying ecologically significant phenotypic traits and the genomic mechanisms that underly them are crucial steps in understanding traits associated with population divergence. We used genome-wide data to identify genomic regions associated with key traits that distinguish two ecomorphs of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)-insectivores and piscivores-that coexist for the non-breeding portion of the year in Kootenay Lake, southeastern British Columbia. "Gerrards" are large-bodied, rapidly growing piscivores with high metabolic rates that spawn north of Kootenay Lake in the Lardeau River, in contrast to the insectivorous populations that are on average smaller in body size, with lower growth and metabolic rates, mainly forage on aquatic insects, and spawn in tributaries immediately surrounding Kootenay Lake. We used pool-seq data representing ~ 60% of the genome and 80 fish per population to assess the level of genomic divergence between ecomorphs and to identify and interrogate loci that may play functional or selective roles in their divergence. RESULTS: Genomic divergence was high between sympatric insectivores and piscivores ([Formula: see text] = 0.188), and in fact higher than between insectivorous populations from Kootenay Lake and the Blackwater River ([Formula: see text] = 0.159) that are > 500 km apart. A window-based [Formula: see text] analysis did not reveal "islands" of genomic differentiation; however, the window with highest [Formula: see text] estimate did include a gene associated with insulin secretion. Although we explored the use of the "Local score" approach to identify genomic outlier regions, this method was ultimately not used because simulations revealed a high false discovery rate (~ 20%). Gene ontology (GO) analysis identified several growth processes as enriched in genes occurring in the ~ 200 most divergent genomic windows, indicating many loci of small effect involved in growth and growth-related metabolic processes are associated with the divergence of these ecomorphs. CONCLUSION: Our results reveal a high degree of genomic differentiation between piscivorous and insectivorous populations and indicate that the large body piscivorous phenotype is likely not due to one or a few loci of large effect. Rather, the piscivore phenotype may be controlled by several loci of small effect, thus highlighting the power of whole-genome resequencing in identifying genomic regions underlying population-level phenotypic divergences.

Global adaptation complicates the interpretation of genome scans for local adaptation.

Spatially varying selection promotes variance in allele frequencies, increasing genetic differentiation between the demes of a metapopulation. For that reason, outliers in the genome-wide distribution of summary statistics measuring genetic differentiation, such as FST , are often interpreted as evidence for alleles that contribute to local adaptation. However, theoretical studies have shown that in spatially structured populations the spread of beneficial mutations with spatially uniform fitness effects can also induce transient genetic differentiation. In recent years, numerous empirical studies have suggested that such species-wide, or global, adaptation makes a substantial contribution to molecular evolution. In this perspective, we discuss how commonly such global adaptation may influence the genome-wide distribution of FST and generate genetic differentiation patterns, which could be mistaken for local adaptation. To illustrate this, we use forward-in-time population genetic simulations assuming parameters for the rate and strength of beneficial mutations consistent with estimates from natural populations. We demonstrate that the spread of globally beneficial mutations in parapatric populations may frequently generate FST outliers, which could be misinterpreted as evidence for local adaptation. The spread of beneficial mutations causes selective sweeps at flanking sites, so in some cases, the effects of global versus local adaptation may be distinguished by examining patterns of nucleotide diversity within and between populations in addition to FST . However, when local adaptation has been only recently established, it may be much more difficult to distinguish from global adaptation, due to less accumulation of linkage disequilibrium at flanking sites. Through our discussion, we conclude that a large fraction of FST outliers that are presumed to arise from local adaptation may instead be due to global adaptation.

Using genetic relatedness to understand heterogeneous distributions of urban rat-associated pathogens.

Urban Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) carry several pathogens transmissible to people. However, pathogen prevalence can vary across fine spatial scales (i.e., by city block). Using a population genomics approach, we sought to describe rat movement patterns across an urban landscape and to evaluate whether these patterns align with pathogen distributions. We genotyped 605 rats from a single neighborhood in Vancouver, Canada, and used 1,495 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms to identify parent-offspring and sibling relationships using pedigree analysis. We resolved 1,246 pairs of relatives, of which only 1% of pairs were captured in different city blocks. Relatives were primarily caught within 33 meters of each other leading to a highly leptokurtic distribution of dispersal distances. Using binomial generalized linear mixed models, we evaluated whether family relationships influenced rat pathogen status with the bacterial pathogens Leptospira interrogans, Bartonella tribocorum, and Clostridium difficile, and found that an individual's pathogen status was not predicted any better by including disease status of related rats. The spatial clustering of related rats and their pathogens lends support to the hypothesis that spatially restricted movement promotes the heterogeneous patterns of pathogen prevalence evidenced in this population. Our findings also highlight the utility of evolutionary tools to understand movement and rat-associated health risks in urban landscapes.

Plasticity via feedback reduces the cost of developmental instability.

Costs of plasticity are thought to have important physiological and evolutionary consequences. A commonly predicted cost to plasticity is that plastic genotypes are likely to suffer from developmental instability. Adaptive plasticity requires that the developing organism can in some way sense what environment it is in or how well it is performing in that environment. These two information pathways-an "environmental signal" or a "performance signal" that indicates how well a developing phenotype matches the optimum in the current environment-can differ in their consequences for the organism and its evolution. Here, we consider how developmental instability might emerge as a side-effect of these two distinct mechanisms. Because a performance cue allows a regulatory feedback loop connecting a trait to a feedback signal, we hypothesized that plastic genotypes using a performance signal would be more developmentally robust compared to those using a purely environmental signal. Using a numerical model of a network of gene interactions, we show that plasticity comes at a cost of developmental instability when the plastic response is mediated via an environmental signal, but not when it is mediated via a performance signal. We also show that a performance signal mechanism can evolve even in a constant environment, leading to genotypes preadapted for plasticity to novel environments even in populations without a history of environmental heterogeneity.

Variation in recombination rate affects detection of outliers in genome scans under neutrality.

Genome scans can potentially identify genetic loci involved in evolutionary processes such as local adaptation and gene flow. Here, we show that recombination rate variation across a neutrally evolving genome gives rise to mixed sampling distributions of mean FST ( FST^ ), a common population genetic summary statistic. In particular, we show that in regions of low recombination the distribution of FST^ estimates has more variance and a longer tail than in more highly recombining regions. Determining outliers from the genome-wide distribution without taking local recombination rate into consideration may therefore increase the frequency of false positives in low recombination regions and be overly conservative in more highly recombining ones. We perform genome scans on simulated and empirical Drosophila melanogaster data sets and, in both cases, find patterns consistent with this neutral model. Similar patterns are observed for other summary statistics used to capture variation in the coalescent process. Linked selection, particularly background selection, is often invoked to explain heterogeneity in FST^ across the genome, but here we point out that even under neutrality, statistical artefacts can arise due to variation in recombination rate. Our results highlight a flaw in the design of genome-scan studies and suggest that without estimates of local recombination rate, interpreting the genomic landscape of any summary statistic that captures variation in the coalescent process will be very difficult.

No evidence of positive assortative mating for genetic quality in fruit flies.

In sexual populations, the effectiveness of selection will depend on how gametes combine with respect to genetic quality. If gametes with deleterious alleles are likely to combine with one another, deleterious genetic variation can be more easily purged by selection. Assortative mating, where there is a positive correlation between parents in a phenotype of interest such as body size, is often observed in nature, but does not necessarily reveal how gametes ultimately combine with respect to genetic quality itself. We manipulated genetic quality in fruit fly populations using an inbreeding scheme designed to provide an unbiased measure of mating patterns. While inbred flies had substantially reduced reproductive success, their gametes did not combine with those of other inbred flies more often than expected by chance, indicating a lack of positive assortative mating. Instead, we detected a negative correlation in genetic quality between parents, i.e. disassortative mating, which diminished with age. This pattern is expected to reduce the genetic variance for fitness, diminishing the effectiveness of selection. We discuss how mechanisms of sexual selection could produce a pattern of disassortative mating. Our study highlights that sexual selection has the potential to either increase or decrease genetic load.

Background selection and FST : Consequences for detecting local adaptation.

Background selection is a process whereby recurrent deleterious mutations cause a decrease in the effective population size and genetic diversity at linked loci. Several authors have suggested that variation in the intensity of background selection could cause variation in FST across the genome, which could confound signals of local adaptation in genome scans. We performed realistic simulations of DNA sequences, using recombination maps from humans and sticklebacks, to investigate how variation in the intensity of background selection affects FST and other statistics of population differentiation in sexual, outcrossing species. We show that, in populations connected by gene flow, Weir and Cockerham's (1984; Evolution, 38, 1358) estimator of FST is largely insensitive to locus-to-locus variation in the intensity of background selection. Unlike FST , however, dXY is negatively correlated with background selection. Moreover, background selection does not greatly affect the false-positive rate in FST outlier studies in populations connected by gene flow. Overall, our study indicates that background selection will not greatly interfere with finding the variants responsible for local adaptation.

Nonequivalent lethal equivalents: Models and inbreeding metrics for unbiased estimation of inbreeding load.

Inbreeding depression, the deterioration in mean trait value in progeny of related parents, is a fundamental quantity in genetics, evolutionary biology, animal and plant breeding, and conservation biology. The magnitude of inbreeding depression can be quantified by the inbreeding load, typically measured in numbers of lethal equivalents, a population genetic quantity that allows for comparisons between environments, populations or species. However, there is as yet no quantitative assessment of which combinations of statistical models and metrics of inbreeding can yield such estimates. Here, we review statistical models that have been used to estimate inbreeding load and use population genetic simulations to investigate how unbiased estimates can be obtained using genomic and pedigree-based metrics of inbreeding. We use simulated binary viability data (i.e., dead versus alive) as our example, but the concepts apply to any trait that exhibits inbreeding depression. We show that the increasingly popular generalized linear models with logit link do not provide comparable and unbiased population genetic measures of inbreeding load, independent of the metric of inbreeding used. Runs of homozygosity result in unbiased estimates of inbreeding load, whereas inbreeding measured from pedigrees results in slight overestimates. Due to widespread use of models that do not yield unbiased measures of the inbreeding load, some estimates in the literature cannot be compared meaningfully. We surveyed the literature for reliable estimates of the mean inbreeding load from wild vertebrate populations and found an average of 3.5 haploid lethal equivalents for survival to sexual maturity. To obtain comparable estimates, we encourage researchers to use generalized linear models with logarithmic links or maximum-likelihood estimation of the exponential equation, and inbreeding coefficients calculated from runs of homozygosity, provided an assembled reference genome of sufficient quality and enough genetic marker data are available.

Quantifying how constraints limit the diversity of viable routes to adaptation.

Convergent adaptation occurs at the genome scale when independently evolving lineages use the same genes to respond to similar selection pressures. These patterns of genetic repeatability provide insights into the factors that facilitate or constrain the diversity of genetic responses that contribute to adaptive evolution. A first step in studying such factors is to quantify the observed amount of repeatability relative to expectations under a null hypothesis. Here, we formulate a novel index to quantify the constraints driving the observed amount of repeated adaptation in pairwise contrasts based on the hypergeometric distribution, and then generalize this for simultaneous analysis of multiple lineages. This index is explicitly based on the probability of observing a given amount of repeatability by chance under a given null hypothesis and is readily compared among different species and types of trait. We also formulate an index to quantify the effective proportion of genes in the genome that have the potential to contribute to adaptation. As an example of how these indices can be used to draw inferences, we assess the amount of repeatability observed in existing datasets on adaptation to stress in yeast and climate in conifers. This approach provides a method to test a wide range of hypotheses about how different kinds of factors can facilitate or constrain the diversity of genetic responses observed during adaptive evolution.

Environmental stress does not increase the mean strength of selection.

A common intuition among evolutionary biologists and ecologists is that environmental stress will increase the strength of selection against deleterious alleles and among alternate genotypes. However, the strength of selection is determined by the relative fitness differences among genotypes, and there is no theoretical reason why these differences should be exaggerated as mean fitness decreases. We update a recent review of the empirical results pertaining to environmental stress and the strength of selection and find that there is no overall trend towards increased selection under stress, in agreement with other recent analyses of existing data. The majority of past studies measure the strength of selection by quantifying the decrease in fitness imposed by single or multiple mutations in different environments. However, selection rarely acts on one locus independently, and the strength of selection will be determined by variation across the whole genome. We used 20 inbred lines of Drosophila melanogaster to make repeated fitness measurements of the same genotypes in four different environments. This framework allowed us to determine the variation in fitness attributable to genotype across stressful environments and to calculate the opportunity for selection among these genotypes in each stress. Although we found significant decreases in mean fitness in our stressful environments, we did not find any significant differences in the strength of selection among any of the four measured environments. Therefore, in agreement with our updated review, we find no evidence for the oft-cited verbal model that stress increases the strength of selection.

Bioinformatically predicted deleterious mutations reveal complementation in the interior spruce hybrid complex.

BACKGROUND: Mutation load is expected to be reduced in hybrids via complementation of deleterious alleles. While local adaptation of hybrids confounds phenotypic tests for reduced mutation load, it may be possible to assess variation in load by analyzing the distribution of putatively deleterious alleles. Here, we use this approach in the interior spruce (Picea glauca x P. engelmannii) hybrid complex, a group likely to suffer from high mutation load and in which hybrids exhibit local adaptation to intermediate conditions. We used PROVEAN to bioinformatically predict whether non-synonymous alleles are deleterious, based on conservation of the position and abnormality of the amino acid change. RESULTS: As expected, we found that predicted deleterious alleles were at lower average allele frequencies than alleles not predicted to be deleterious. We were unable to detect a phenotypic effect on juvenile growth rate of the many rare alleles predicted to be deleterious. Both the proportion of alleles predicted to be deleterious and the proportion of loci homozygous for predicted deleterious alleles were higher in P. engelmannii (Engelmann spruce) than in P. glauca (white spruce), due to higher diversity and frequencies of rare alleles in Engelmann. Relative to parental species, the proportion of alleles predicted to be deleterious was intermediate in hybrids, and the proportion of loci homozygous for predicted deleterious alleles was lowest. CONCLUSION: Given that most deleterious alleles are recessive, this suggests that mutation load is reduced in hybrids due to complementation of deleterious alleles. This effect may enhance the fitness of hybrids.

Local Adaptation Interacts with Expansion Load during Range Expansion: Maladaptation Reduces Expansion Load.

The biotic and abiotic factors that facilitate or hinder species range expansions are many and complex. We examine the impact of two genetic processes and their interaction on fitness at expanding range edges: local maladaptation resulting from the presence of an environmental gradient and expansion load resulting from increased genetic drift at the range edge. Results from spatially explicit simulations indicate that the presence of an environmental gradient during range expansion reduces expansion load; conversely, increasing expansion load allows only locally adapted populations to persist at the range edge. Increased maladaptation reduces the speed of range expansion, resulting in less genetic drift at the expanding front and more immigration from the range center, therefore reducing expansion load at the range edge. These results may have ramifications for species being forced to shift their ranges because of climate change or other anthropogenic changes. If rapidly changing climate leads to faster expansion as populations track their shifting climatic optima, populations may suffer increased expansion load beyond previous expectations.

Convergent local adaptation to climate in distantly related conifers.

When confronted with an adaptive challenge, such as extreme temperature, closely related species frequently evolve similar phenotypes using the same genes. Although such repeated evolution is thought to be less likely in highly polygenic traits and distantly related species, this has not been tested at the genome scale. We performed a population genomic study of convergent local adaptation among two distantly related species, lodgepole pine and interior spruce. We identified a suite of 47 genes, enriched for duplicated genes, with variants associated with spatial variation in temperature or cold hardiness in both species, providing evidence of convergent local adaptation despite 140 million years of separate evolution. These results show that adaptation to climate can be genetically constrained, with certain key genes playing nonredundant roles.

Finding the Genomic Basis of Local Adaptation: Pitfalls, Practical Solutions, and Future Directions.

Uncovering the genetic and evolutionary basis of local adaptation is a major focus of evolutionary biology. The recent development of cost-effective methods for obtaining high-quality genome-scale data makes it possible to identify some of the loci responsible for adaptive differences among populations. Two basic approaches for identifying putatively locally adaptive loci have been developed and are broadly used: one that identifies loci with unusually high genetic differentiation among populations (differentiation outlier methods) and one that searches for correlations between local population allele frequencies and local environments (genetic-environment association methods). Here, we review the promises and challenges of these genome scan methods, including correcting for the confounding influence of a species' demographic history, biases caused by missing aspects of the genome, matching scales of environmental data with population structure, and other statistical considerations. In each case, we make suggestions for best practices for maximizing the accuracy and efficiency of genome scans to detect the underlying genetic basis of local adaptation. With attention to their current limitations, genome scan methods can be an important tool in finding the genetic basis of adaptive evolutionary change.